The irrational edge

Why the Best Signals can be the Weirdest Ones

Those who know me well know I have a long-standing layman’s interest in economics, finance and investing. As well as being highly interesting to me, exploring this mysterious domain has helped me meet all sorts of people I would never otherwise have met, from shipping magnates to survivors of the City.

One of the most entertaining characters I met happens to have a holiday home in the next village along the South Devon coast. Since first exchanging tweets we have shared several meals and pints. One of his great pleasures is pointing out that whenever a finance story makes it to the top of the BBC news it is almost always the time to do the opposite. (You can follow his snarky but entertaining twitter account here)

So when the BBC headline screams Gold hits all time high the contrarian knows it is one of the most reliable signals to sell. Recently we have seen plenty of headlines about the yield on long term UK government debt which is worth keeping in mind.

Contrarian signals are not limited to markets. They also show up in fundraising. Legendary marketing firm Ogilvy once tested a well known charity’s annual door drop campaign. The results were fascinating and counterintuitive.

For example the 100,000 envelopes that highlighted how the UK government would increase the value of donations from taxpayers generated 30 percent less income than the ones that did not mention it. In another outcome the 100,000 high quality envelopes produced many more gifts of £100 or more. Neither of these results are rational.

If we were perfectly rational then stories would not make a blind bit of difference to fundraising or sales performance. Yet stories do matter enormously. I suspect that is why the Start With Your Story workshop has proved so impactful.

Why would this be? Nobody really knows. Perhaps talking about tax depresses people as they think about how much of their pay is already taken. Perhaps a glossy envelope quietly signals the importance of the cause. Either way the data is the data.

The lesson is simple. Do not assume your audience thinks like you. Test the counterintuitive because it may outperform the obvious. In a world that pretends to be rational it is often the irrational that moves people and that is where your story carries power.

2 ways to go deeper this autumn

✅ Strategy Sessions
I am now offering one and two hour 1:1 strategy sessions bookable directly via the website. These are available GLOBALLY and are designed to give leaders fast high value insight without the weight of a long term commitment. Perfect if you need clarity before a board or leadership meeting, or if you want to take your team to the next level. Book your session.

✅ Start With Your Story Workshop. London, 13 November 2025
Join me at St Martin in the Fields for a one day workshop that will help you shape and share your organisation’s story with impact. Early bird tickets are available now. Book your place.

reverse benchmarking

Why Charities Should Focus on Where the Best Fall Short

In the charity sector, benchmarking is often seen as best practice. We look at high-performing organisations, identify what they do well, and try to emulate it. I've often asked managers in my teams, and now clients I have worked with, 'where does world class exist?'

But there's a problem with this approach: it tends to make everyone look the same. Doing something excellently has far less value if others have already led the way.

Enter reverse benchmarking.

Coined and popularised by thinkers like Rory Sutherland, reverse benchmarking encourages you to look not at what others are doing well, but at what they’re doing badly or neglecting entirely. And then? You go and do that bit brilliantly.

It’s a mindset shift. Instead of asking “How can we be more like them?” you might ask “Though they are mostly brilliant, where are they consistently weak, and how could we turn that into a strength?”

Serving beer well in a world of fine wine

Most Michelin-starred restaurants obsess over wine. Beer? Barely an afterthought. Even the best restaurants didn’t care if it was warm, generic, or served poorly. That was the blind spot.

Will Guidara spotted it. He realised that beer drinkers were often made to feel second-class, even though they were paying just as much. So he went the other way:

• Curated an exceptional beer list

• Served beer with the same ceremony and respect as fine wine

• Trained staff to offer flavour pairings and elevate the experience

The result? Guests who loved beer (and their friends) felt seen, respected, and surprised. It generated delight and loyalty in a space where others simply neglected the category.

This wasn’t just about beer. It was a philosophy: win where others don’t try.

Why it matters

The best organisations aren’t perfect. They may be excellent at fundraising or media coverage, but fall short on things like:

• supporter responsiveness

• local engagement

• volunteer retention

• staff wellbeing

• tech infrastructure

• internal storytelling

These neglected areas often hold hidden strategic value. If you’re a smaller or growing organisation, focusing here gives you a genuine edge. You’re not chasing the leaders, you’re leapfrogging them in areas they may have neglected.

Reverse benchmarking in action

A charity might notice that large, well-known competitors have a slick public image, but their supporter comms are impersonal and templated. That’s a gap. So you lean into it: personalised donor experiences, authentic updates, heartfelt impact stories. You win not by doing more, but by doing differently. This is what makes you stand out.

Everyone is turning to AI, including the largest and most dynamic organisations. But if following them leads you to write the same templated communications as everyone else, then AI is not making you stand out, it is making you vanish.

Maybe the sector’s top performers are so focused on policy and scale that they’ve lost emotional resonance. You tell stories with rawness and integrity, and suddenly, people start listening.

Some practical questions to ask:

• Where are the “leaders” falling short?

• What are they avoiding or under-investing in?

• What do we uniquely understand about our context that others don’t?

Final thought

Benchmarking can definitely raise your game, but it also breeds conformity. Reverse benchmarking, done well, breeds creativity and courage. It asks you to look with fresh eyes, not just at others, but at yourself.

If you can take the time to identify the gaps that everyone else is ignoring, then you can lead in ways that nobody else is even attempting. At Start Bay, we help charities find the gaps that other organisations miss. If you're ready to win in the places where others do not try, then contact us today.

In a noisy, risk-averse sector, reverse benchmarking might be the most powerful differentiator of all.