The irrational edge

Why the Best Signals can be the Weirdest Ones

Those who know me well know I have a long-standing layman’s interest in economics, finance and investing. As well as being highly interesting to me, exploring this mysterious domain has helped me meet all sorts of people I would never otherwise have met, from shipping magnates to survivors of the City.

One of the most entertaining characters I met happens to have a holiday home in the next village along the South Devon coast. Since first exchanging tweets we have shared several meals and pints. One of his great pleasures is pointing out that whenever a finance story makes it to the top of the BBC news it is almost always the time to do the opposite. (You can follow his snarky but entertaining twitter account here)

So when the BBC headline screams Gold hits all time high the contrarian knows it is one of the most reliable signals to sell. Recently we have seen plenty of headlines about the yield on long term UK government debt which is worth keeping in mind.

Contrarian signals are not limited to markets. They also show up in fundraising. Legendary marketing firm Ogilvy once tested a well known charity’s annual door drop campaign. The results were fascinating and counterintuitive.

For example the 100,000 envelopes that highlighted how the UK government would increase the value of donations from taxpayers generated 30 percent less income than the ones that did not mention it. In another outcome the 100,000 high quality envelopes produced many more gifts of £100 or more. Neither of these results are rational.

If we were perfectly rational then stories would not make a blind bit of difference to fundraising or sales performance. Yet stories do matter enormously. I suspect that is why the Start With Your Story workshop has proved so impactful.

Why would this be? Nobody really knows. Perhaps talking about tax depresses people as they think about how much of their pay is already taken. Perhaps a glossy envelope quietly signals the importance of the cause. Either way the data is the data.

The lesson is simple. Do not assume your audience thinks like you. Test the counterintuitive because it may outperform the obvious. In a world that pretends to be rational it is often the irrational that moves people and that is where your story carries power.

2 ways to go deeper this autumn

✅ Strategy Sessions
I am now offering one and two hour 1:1 strategy sessions bookable directly via the website. These are available GLOBALLY and are designed to give leaders fast high value insight without the weight of a long term commitment. Perfect if you need clarity before a board or leadership meeting, or if you want to take your team to the next level. Book your session.

✅ Start With Your Story Workshop. London, 13 November 2025
Join me at St Martin in the Fields for a one day workshop that will help you shape and share your organisation’s story with impact. Early bird tickets are available now. Book your place.